George Russell is headed for an engine penalty before season's end, though Mercedes hasn't picked the race. Russell burned through power units with failures in Canada and Hungary; teammate Kimi Antonelli takes his grid drop at Monza after a Barcelona DNF. Mercedes is gaming out where Russell can recover most efficiently. Baku looks likely — similar to Monza, it's got four overtaking zones and energy-starved straights that favor attacking. The team wants to absorb the pain now while holding championship leads in both standings rather than gambling late. Andrew Shovlin admits they're recalculating every race as mileage piles on and reliability data evolves. If Mercedes delays too long chasing fresher hardware, a race-day failure could cost more points than a strategic grid penalty. Russell needs to survive Italy and Spain before the Azerbaijan round at the end of September becomes the obvious call.
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