Otmar Szafnauer thinks McLaren will close the 2026 season as Mercedes' closest challenger, not Ferrari. The former Alpine boss pointed to Woking's upgrade cycle—rolled out across Hungary, Zandvoort, and now complete for Monza—as the inflection point. Lando Norris has already strung together back-to-back wins, and Szafnauer expects the latest aero package to push McLaren past the Scuderia in the constructors' standings.
The competitive order keeps shifting because teams are bringing significant development at different times. In a new regulatory year, the learning curve is steep, and whoever upgrades last gains an edge. Mercedes, leading the constructors' standings, has deliberately spaced its packages to stay under the cost cap. Szafnauer predicts one final Silver Arrows upgrade around Malaysia or Singapore—not a stream of smaller tweaks, because realised parts cost real money.
If Szafnauer's right, Monza marks the start of a two-horse fight through the fall.
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