F1's budget cap delivered financial stability but froze the competitive order in place. Williams principal James Vowles laid out the problem: the top four teams now score 83% of points, up from the seventies pre-cap. The spending limit created a "cost cap trap" — backmarkers burn tens of millions on basic factory systems that front-runners built years ago, leaving nothing for actual car development.

Manchester City's £830 million Financial Fair Play breach in the Premier League highlights what can go wrong. F1's enforcement has been tighter — Red Bull's £1.864 million 2021 overspend was procedural, not deliberate, and represents 0.2% of City's violation. FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem still questioned the cap's value last year, calling it "a headache."

The cap saved teams from bankruptcy but didn't compress the field. The question now is whether F1 values ten solvent teams racing in two tiers, or finds a way to help the back five climb.

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